How does shelter cost weighting differ between CPI and PCE calculations?

Shelter costs dominate the CPI calculation with a roughly 33% share. Conversely, the PCE index assigns notably lower weight to housing while increasing exposure to healthcare services through chain-weighting methods.

What recent tariff levels caused copper prices to climb significantly?

Copper and brass mill shapes climbed 15.7% in price due to Section 232 tariffs raised to 50% on imported steel and aluminum. These industrial price shocks transmit faster to the PCE index.

What monthly PCE print do forecasters expect to push annualized rates higher?

Forecasters expect the monthly print to reach 0.35%, pushing the six-month annualized rate to 4.1%. This acceleration explains why recent data missed expectations on the downside for growth.

How did Canadian core inflation year-over-year compare to headline figures in April?

While headline inflation printed 2.8% year-over-year, core inflation was 2.1% year-over-year. These gaps matter because infrastructure cost inflation driven by tariffs alters input prices that feed differently.

What recession probability has J.P. Morgan Global Research assigned to 2026?

J.P. Morgan Global Research assigns a 35% recession probability to 2026. This upcoming US PCE inflation print demands immediate scrutiny as it serves as the definitive gauge for Federal Reserve policy.

What is the current probability of a Fed rate hike in July?

Markets currently price a 40% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike occurring this July. This probability reflects a shift toward aggression with 38 basis points of tightening now expected by year-end.

How likely is a rate increase for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand?

The RBNZ faces an 80% probability of a rate hike at its next scheduled meeting. This high likelihood contrasts with other central banks that signal stagnation or no change in their current policies.

Why has the Federal Reserve abandoned explicit forward guidance recently?

Chair Warsh prefers letting financial markets dictate tempo rather than providing fixed forward guidance statements. This approach aims to improve market efficiency by forcing reactions to incoming data instead of policy guesses.

What inflation target has the Fed failed to meet consistently since 2021?

The statutory price stability target remains 2%, a threshold the institution has failed to meet consistently since 2021. Achieving this goal drives the current hawkish bias seen in recent committee projections.

How does the global policy range impact investment strategies today?

Investors must navigate a global policy range spanning from 0.25% in Switzerland to 4.50% in Norway. This divergence requires adjusting portfolios to handle varying liquidity costs across different economic zones.

Inflation data: Why PCE beats CPI for Fed calls

Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

J. P. Morgan Global Research assigns a 35% recession probability to 2026. In this climate, the upcoming US PCE inflation print is not just another data point; it is the definitive gauge for Federal Reserve policy. It overshadows noisier metrics like CPI that frequently mislead retail investors.

Rate expectations shift as Fed dots show 40% hike odds

Thu, 18 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Markets have priced in 38 basis points of tightening by year-end. Fed rate expectations have shifted hard toward aggression. This repricing confirms a fracture in global monetary policy: the Federal Reserve leans into short-term tightening while peers like the ECB and BoE signal stagnation. Investors now face a global policy range spanning over 1,300 basis points, stretching from Switzerland's stagnant 0.25% to Norway's restrictive 4.50%.

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Inflation data: Why PCE beats CPI for Fed calls

Rate expectations shift as Fed dots show 40% hike odds