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Inflation data: Why PCE beats CPI for Fed calls

With a 35% recession risk by 2026, I explain why Core PCE's chainweighting matters more than CPI for your trades.

Jun 22, 2026 Sofia Mendes 13 min read

Rate expectations shift as Fed dots show 40% hike odds

Markets now price a 40% chance of a July hike. I break down how the Fed's split dot plot and raw data drive this aggressive shift.

Jun 18, 2026 Marcus Halloran 12 min read