Inflation overshoot: Why the June 2026 rate hike matters
The June 2026 rate hike to 1.00% marks a 31-year high. I break down why delayed action triggered this inflation overshoot and what it means for your FX...
Vikram Nair
14 min readInflation
Vikram Nair
14 min read
Corecore inflation in Japan drops to 2.1%: BOJ trap
Japan's corecore inflation fell to 2.1% in May, masking sticky 2.7% headline rates. I explain why this gap forces the BOJ to pause.
Sofia Mendes
12 min read
Inflation data: Why PCE beats CPI for Fed calls
With a 35% recession risk by 2026, I explain why Core PCE's chainweighting matters more than CPI for your trades.
Sofia Mendes
13 min read
Inflation mandate locks Fed out: 14 of 19 see zero cuts
Warsh prioritizes the 2% target as 14 of 19 FOMC participants see zero cuts. Markets react sharply to this rigid price stability stance.
Vikram Nair
13 min read
Flash PMI Data: Why 35% Recession Odds Clash With Growth
Goldman sees 2.8% growth while J.P. Morgan flags 35% recession risk. I break down what this Flash PMI split means for your EM trades.
Vikram Nair
15 min read
Fed rate hike odds shift as Warsh targets 3.8%
Warsh pushes rates to 3.8% while J.P. Morgan flags a 35% recession chance. We decode what this split means for your EM pairs.
Vikram Nair
15 min read
Trend check: GBP/AUD needs hotter inflation data
GBP/AUD bounced off Fibonacci support, but Chinese retail sales fell 0.6%. See how UK CPI data could break the stalemate before the BoE meets.
Sofia Mendes
10 min read
Inflation Rise: Why Services Costs Stall Fed
Goolsbee flags 4.2% inflation as services rise. We analyze how sticky costs and energy spikes delay rate cuts for traders.
Sofia Mendes
15 min read
ECB Rate Decision: Inflation Hits 3.0% in 2026
The ECB lifted rates to 2.25% as inflation hits 3.0%. I break down why one more hike is likely before a long pause through 2027.
Marcus Halloran
12 min read
Trimmed mean signals rates stay high till 2027
Trimmed mean inflation could peak at 3.7% by mid-2026. Fuel drops hide sticky core costs keeping RBA rates restrictive.
Sofia Mendes
10 min read