Verbal intervention fails as USD/JPY hits 161.9
USD/JPY slid to 161.9 proving talk fails. Flash PMI hit 52.5, yet input costs surge. Vikram analyzes why markets ignore rhetoric.
Vikram Nair
12 min readData
Vikram Nair
12 min read
Inflation data: Why PCE beats CPI for Fed calls
With a 35% recession risk by 2026, I explain why Core PCE's chainweighting matters more than CPI for your trades.
Sofia Mendes
13 min read
Rate expectations shift as Fed dots show 40% hike odds
Markets now price a 40% chance of a July hike. I break down how the Fed's split dot plot and raw data drive this aggressive shift.
Marcus Halloran
12 min read
Flash PMI Data: Why 35% Recession Odds Clash With Growth
Goldman sees 2.8% growth while J.P. Morgan flags 35% recession risk. I break down what this Flash PMI split means for your EM trades.
Vikram Nair
15 min read
Fed rate hold: Why Warsh ignores the 3.8% dot plot
CITIC predicts the Fed holds rates at 3.5% despite the 3.8% dot plot. Warsh prioritizes politics over hawks as guidance vanishes.
Vikram Nair
14 min read
Gold data gaps: Verify US-Iran shipping flows
Gold rose 3% to $4,337 on US-Iran news, but verified shipping data must match the hype before buyers clear the 200-day average.
Aisha Rahman
12 min read